Why Bill Self is the most underachieving college basketball coach

What does the word underachieve mean? Underachieving id defined as "one that fails to attain a predicted level of achievement or does not do as well as expected". This word is the perfect description for Bill Self and the Kansas basketball program since winning their last National Championship in 2008. Kansas has been so dominant in Big 12 Conference, on the recruiting trail, and have never been lower than a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. For them to only have two Final Four berths in the last 11 years is quite simply a failure. Self is a great developer of talent and not just any coach can win a National Championship, but as one of the blue bloods of the sport this drought is unexpected and is best described as underachieving for several reasons. 

Control of the Big 12: 

From 2003, when Self took over as head coach until 2018 Kansas won the Big 12 Conference outright or had a share of the regular season conference crown. While Kansas has had many challengers in the Big 12 throughout the years, their home court advantage is the best in college basketball. Since the 2007-08 season in 11 seasons Kansas has only lost eight home games, nine if the 2020-21 season is included. This means that Kansas is opening every season with a minimum eight to nine conference victories and if they split half of their conference road games 13 to 14 conference victories is enough on most years to clinch the one seed in the conference tournament. Despite having full control of the conference in the regular season the conference tournament was a whole new ballgame, even though Kansas essentially had home court when the tournament shifted to the Sprint Center in Kansas City at the start of the 08-09 season. Kansas has almost as many non Big 12 Tournament championship appearances at four as they do championships with five, with the other two years losing in the title game. The carry over from the regular season to postseason basketball did not always apply for Kansas not just for the Big 12 Tournament, but for the NCAA tournament as well. 

Recruiting and Talent Prowess: 

Since 2009, Kansas has had six top 10 recruiting classes and has had seven top 15 recruiting classes. According to ESPN, Kansas not only dominates the Big 12 on the court but on the recruiting trail as well. Texas is only other school in the Big 12 to pull consistent top 10 recruiting classes over the last 11 years, including six top 10 classes and nine top 20 classes overall, which is more than Kansas at seven over the same timespan. Despite the recruiting success Texas has not been past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since the 2007-08 season. In fact the rest of the Big 12 Conference outside of Kansas and Texas has a combined four top 10 recruiting classes since 2009, which just shows how much more talented Kansas is than the majority of their opponents. When this is considered with home court advantage it is no wonder Kansas dominates on a year to year basis. It is also not just the recruiting prowess, but the talent prowess as well. Even if teams attain five star talent, that does not always guarantee success at the college level. Kansas has had nine lottery picks and 11 total first round picks play for Self since the 08-09 season highlighted by lottery picks Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, Ben Mclemore, Josh Jackson, Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry with Kelly Oubre and Udoka Azubuike being the other first rounders. Many of these first rounders were All Americans, first team all Big 12, and conference POTY proving Selfs success as an outstanding developmental coach. Kansas has almost as many lottery picks alone as Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas have combined at 11 with those schools being the most consistent threats to Kansas in that 11 year span. It can also not be forgotten that Kansas also sent a total of 18 players to the NBA, including 7 second rounders. Those second round picks were highlighted by Frank Mason III, was a College Basketball National Player of the year in 2017 and Devonte' Graham was a consensus All American and Big 12 POTY in 2018. Kansas has dominated their conference, the recruiting trail, and sending players to the NBA three things that few schools can say in their respective conferences, but despite all that success there are no guarantees come March. 

Shortcomings in March: 

Kansas has been a historically dominant college program with only six other programs recording more National Championships than themselves in UCLA, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, and Uconn. Since the 08-09 season Kansas has been a one seed six times likely seven times had the 19-20 season not been cancelled due to Covid-19. The other three seasons have been divided by being a two, three, and four seed all one time. The most interesting thing about Kansas in the March Madness Tournament in the last 11 years is that Kansas has more Round of 32 exits than Final Four berths with losses to 9 seed Northern Iowa in 2010, 10 seed Stanford in 2014, 7 seed Wichita State in 2015, and 5 seed Auburn in 2019. Kansas also has 5 eliminations from the tournament by double digits all while being the higher seed. They also lost to Northern Iowa and 11 seed VCU in the 2011 Elite 8 both with over 30 wins and only two losses on the season until those meetings. Kansas does get credit for their stellar run to the 2012 National Championship, but their last trip to the Final Four was something to be forgotten. Villanova got off to a 22-4 start against Kansas and Kansas was never able to recover as they lost 95-79 to the eventual National Champion. In fact, their last two tournament losses were very bad as Auburn went up 51-25 in their Round of 32 matchup just two years ago. All of these losses are shocking considering the seeding and the talent gap that Kansas has with again many of their matchups, but what is more shocking is the location of these losses. Kansas has lost tournament games in Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Dallas, St. Louis, Omaha, Louisville, and Kansas City. Kansas has one of the best fan bases in the sport and with the favorable regional sites, Kansas fans flock and flood the so called "neutral site" courts making many tournament games feel like home games for the Jayhawks. Their opponents at those sites Northern Iowa, VCU, Stanford, Wichita State, Villanova, and Oregon all had fans in the arena but none compared to the Jayhawks given the closer radius for the Jayhawks and their fans. Given being a one seed in all but three tournament appearances in 10 years with home court advantage in many of those matchups to not win a championship would perfectly fit the description of underachieving. 

Other programs success:

It is not just the failure of Kansas in March either, but the success of other programs with similar situations. Since 2008, Coach K at Duke has won two National Championships in 2010 and 2015. Roy Williams has been to three Final Fours, winning Championships twice in 2009 and 2017. Villanova led by Jay Wright has been to the Final Four three times winning championships twice in 2016 and 2018. Tom Izzo at Michigan State and John Calipari at Kentucky have combined for 8 Final Four appearances with only one championship between the two with Calipari winning in 2012. Uconn has been to the Final Four three times and won National Championships twice with two different coaches Jim Calhoun in 2011 and Kevin Ollie in 2014. Even non traditional basketball powers in Butler, Syracuse, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Louisville have as many Final Four berths as Kansas. 

Kansas is still good but: 

No one will ever know what Kansas could have done to finish last season. They went 17-1 in conference play with a 28-3 total record. Kansas would have likely won the Big 12 Tournament and clinched a one seed with a good chance to go back to the Final Four and potentially win a National Championship. None of that matters anymore as Kansas is off to a 10-4 start this season, with three conference losses including a home blowout to Texas 84-59 and with little fans home court advantage is out the window. Kansas has had the same problems now for three years and it is all tied together. Three of their last four recruiting classes were outside the top 20 and had Kansas not had Azubuike, who shot a career 74% from the field last season they would have lost many more games given their lack of outside shooting and few playmakers over the last two seasons. Kansas will always be in the upper tier of the Big 12 due to Bill Selfs ability to develop players over the course of a season, but given the talent they have had and the Tournament advantages over the last 11 years it is still unbelievable they have not won a championship since 2008. That is why, Bill Self is the most underachieving coach in all of college basketball.